predicting charlie, scott, vikash's evaluation given inferred goal and belief

[hyunjimoon]

1. labeling charlie and scott's approach to entrepreneurship in one of the four quadrants from
   Hofman21_integ_exp_pred_css.pdf
2. calculating charlie and scott's probability of agreement conditional on my belief on their value capture and create hypothesis (with their theory)

	No intervention or distributional changes	Under interventions or distributional changes
Focus on specific features or effects	Quadrant 1: Descriptive modelling Describe situations in the past or present (but neither causal nor predictive)	Quadrant 2: Explanatory modelling Estimate effects of changing a situation (but many effects are small)
Focus on predicting outcomes	Quadrant 3: Predictive modelling Forecast outcomes for similar situations in the future (but can break under changes)	Quadrant 4: Integrative modelling Predict outcomes and estimate effects in as yet unseen situations

Assumptions on Charlie and Scott:

Charlie's NSS framework: Focuses on adapting strategies as ventures evolve through stages.
Scott's framework: Emphasizes strategic choices under uncertainty and constraints.
detail in processify_EntStrat.md summary of their work in five tables.

Final summary of Charlie's work:
"Agent adapting strategies to evolving venture challenges, guided by a flexible lifecycle model"
Calculation process:
P(Charlie agrees) = P(adapting) * P(evolving challenges) * P(flexible model)
= 0.9 * 0.85 * 0.8
≈ 0.612

Final summary of Scott's work:
"Strategic choice framework balancing value creation and capture under uncertainty and constraints"
Calculation process:
P(Scott agrees) = P(strategic choice) * P(value balance) * P(uncertainty) * P(constraints)
= 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.9
≈ 0.73

https://claude.ai/chat/24d6c73f-637c-4e0d-8dca-daeba41959c0