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Portfolio Analysis and Optimization Project

This project is aimed at preparing and analyzing a low-risk, moderate return portfolio. The system supports the sourcing, analysis, and visualization of stock data along with an optimization workflow.

Project Structure

  • src/: Contains the analysis script (analyze.py) that:
    • Sources data from the Yahoo yfinance API.
    • Generates analysis plots including:
      • Trend analysis and seasonal decomposition.
      • Differencing of prices (i.e., returns) and corresponding partial autocorrelation.
      • Auto correlation and partial autocorrelation for stock prices.
  • src/data/: Stores the sourced data for each ticker.
  • src/plots/: Holds the generated analysis plots.
  • src/requirements.txt: Lists all the Python package dependencies.
  • src/tickers.txt: Contains user-provided tickers to parse, source, and create data.
  • optimization/optim.ipynb: Contains the notebook for portfolio optimization:
    • Implements Markowitz optimization.
    • Performs Monte Carlo simulations for benchmarking equity performance against the S&P500.
    • Includes methodologies for dollar cost averaging, projecting returns, and estimating the probability of outperformance.

Getting Started

  1. Clone the Repository

    git clone <repository-url>
    
  2. Install Dependencies
    Run the following command to install required packages:

    pip install -r requirements.txt
    
  3. Setup Ticker Symbols
    Edit tickers.txt to include your target ticker symbols (e.g., AAPL, GOOG4 MSFT).

  4. Running the Analysis Execute the analysis script from the project root:

    python src/analyze.py
    
  5. Portfolio Optimization

    Explore the notebook in the optimization/ directory to:

    • Test different portfolio allocation strategies.
    • Compare portfolio performance against benchmark indices.
    • Utilize Monte Carlo methods for risk simulation.

Presentation Materials

For an overview of the project and detailed explanations, refer to: