Merge pull request #889 from 0UmfHxcvx5J7JoaOhFSs5mncnisTJJ6q/dev/ind…

…ustry_specific_energy_slope limit steel specific energy demand above thermodynamic limit to prevent too fast efficiency gains
remindmodel · Jun 29, 2022 · 95c618a · 95c618a
2 parents e72dc87 + 2f14db4
commit 95c618a
Show file tree

Hide file tree

Showing 4 changed files with 49 additions and 5 deletions.
diff --git a/modules/37_industry/fixed_shares/not_used.txt b/modules/37_industry/fixed_shares/not_used.txt
@@ -10,4 +10,4 @@ cm_emiscen,              switch,     not needed
 pm_calibrate_eff_scale,  parameter,  not needed
 pm_fedemand,             parameter,  not needed
 sm_TWa_2_MWh,            input,      questionnaire
-
+sm_tmp2,                 parameter,  not needed
diff --git a/modules/37_industry/subsectors/datainput.gms b/modules/37_industry/subsectors/datainput.gms
@@ -72,6 +72,44 @@ pm_energy_limit(in)
   * 1e9;                   !! * t/Gt
                            !! = TWa/Gt
 
+* Specific energy demand cannot fall below a curve described by an exponential
+* function passing through the 2015 value and a point defined by an "efficiency
+* gain" (e.g. 75 %) between baseline value and thermodynamic limit at a given
+* year (e.g. 2050).
+if (cm_emiscen eq 1,
+  execute_loadpoint "input.gdx"     p37_cesIO_baseline = vm_cesIO.l;
+else
+  execute_loadpoint "input_ref.gdx" p37_cesIO_baseline = vm_cesIO.l;
+);
+
+sm_tmp2 = 0.75;   !! maximum "efficiency gain", from 2015 baseline value to 
+                  !! thermodynamic limit
+sm_tmp  = 2050;   !! period in which closing could be achieved
+
+loop (industry_ue_calibration_target_dyn37(out)$( pm_energy_limit(out) ),
+  p37_energy_limit_slope(ttot,regi,out)$( ttot.val ge 2015 )
+  = ( ( sum(ces_eff_target_dyn37(out,in), p37_cesIO_baseline("2015",regi,in))
+      / p37_cesIO_baseline("2015",regi,out)
+      )
+    - pm_energy_limit(out)
+    )
+  * exp((2015 - ttot.val) / ((2015 - sm_tmp) / log(1 - sm_tmp2)))
+  + pm_energy_limit(out);
+
+  !! To account for strong 2015-20 drops due to imperfect 2020 energy data,
+  !! use the lower of the calculated curve, or 95 % of the baseline specific
+  !! energy demand
+  p37_energy_limit_slope(ttot,regi,out)$( ttot.val ge 2015 )
+  = min(
+      p37_energy_limit_slope(ttot,regi,out),
+      ( 0.95
+      * ( sum(ces_eff_target_dyn37(out,in), p37_cesIO_baseline(ttot,regi,in))
+        / p37_cesIO_baseline(ttot,regi,out)
+	)
+      )
+    );
+);
+
 *** CCS for industry is off by default
 emiMacSector(emiInd37_fuel) = NO;
 pm_macSwitch(emiInd37)      = NO;

diff --git a/modules/37_industry/subsectors/declarations.gms b/modules/37_industry/subsectors/declarations.gms
@@ -13,13 +13,15 @@ Scalar
 Parameters
   pm_abatparam_Ind(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,steps)                               "industry CCS MAC curves [ratio @ US$2005]"
   pm_energy_limit(all_in)                                                      "thermodynamic/technical limits of subsector energy use [GJ/t product]"
+  p37_energy_limit_slope(tall,all_regi,all_in)                                 "limit for subsector specific energy demand that converges towards the thermodynamic/technical limit [GJ/t product]"
   p37_clinker_cement_ratio(ttot,all_regi)                                      "clinker content per unit cement used"                                         
   pm_ue_eff_target(all_in)                                                     "energy efficiency target trajectories [% p.a.]"                               
   pm_IndstCO2Captured(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,all_enty,secInd37,all_emiMkt)     "Captured CO2 in industry by energy carrier, subsector and emissions market"   
   p37_CESMkup(ttot,all_regi,all_in)                                            "CES markup cost parameter [trUSD/CES input]"                                  
   p37_cesIO_up_steel_secondary(tall,all_regi,all_GDPscen)                      "upper limit to secondary steel production based on scrap availability"        
   p37_steel_secondary_max_share(tall,all_regi)                                 "maximum share of secondary steel production"
   p37_BAU_industry_ETS_solids(tall,all_regi)                                   "industry solids demand in baseline scenario"
+  p37_cesIO_baseline(tall,all_regi,all_in)                                     "vm_cesIO from the baseline scenario"
 
 *** output parameters only for reporting
   o37_emiInd(ttot,all_regi,all_enty,secInd37,all_enty)                   "industry CCS emissions [GtC/a]"                                                                                

diff --git a/modules/37_industry/subsectors/equations.gms b/modules/37_industry/subsectors/equations.gms
@@ -22,11 +22,12 @@ q37_demFeIndst(ttot,regi,entyFe,emiMkt)$(    ttot.val ge cm_startyear
 
 *' Thermodynamic limits on subsector energy demand
 q37_energy_limits(ttot,regi,industry_ue_calibration_target_dyn37(out))$(
-                                 ttot.val gt 2015 AND pm_energy_limit(out) ) ..
+                                      ttot.val gt 2020
+				  AND p37_energy_limit_slope(ttot,regi,out) ) ..
   sum(ces_eff_target_dyn37(out,in), vm_cesIO(ttot,regi,in))
   =g=
     vm_cesIO(ttot,regi,out)
-  * pm_energy_limit(out)
+  * p37_energy_limit_slope(ttot,regi,out)
 ;
 
 *' Limit the share of secondary steel to historic values, fading to 90 % in 2050
@@ -44,9 +45,12 @@ q37_limit_secondary_steel_share(ttot,regi)$( ttot.val ge cm_startyear ) ..
 q37_macBaseInd(ttot,regi,entyFE,secInd37)$( ttot.val ge cm_startyear ) ..
   vm_macBaseInd(ttot,regi,entyFE,secInd37)
   =e=
-    sum((secInd37_2_pf(secInd37,ppfen_industry_dyn37(in)),fe2ppfen(entyFE,in))$(entyFeCC37(entyFe)),
+    sum((secInd37_2_pf(secInd37,ppfen_industry_dyn37(in)),
+         fe2ppfen(entyFECC37(entyFE),in)),
       vm_cesIO(ttot,regi,in)
-    * sum((entySe,te)$(se2fe(entySe,entyFe,te) and entySeFos(entySe)), pm_emifac(ttot,regi,entySe,entyFe,te,"co2"))
+    * sum(se2fe(entySEfos,entyFE,te),
+        pm_emifac(ttot,regi,entySEfos,entyFE,te,"co2")
+      )
     )
 ;